Habitat degradation assessment and restoration framework for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Shimian section of the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), China

Anthropogenic activities and environmental changes have historically impacted the habitat quality of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). This study introduces the concepts of “theoretical habitat” and “actual habitat” and integrates disturbance factors to assess habitat degradation in the Shimian section of Giant Panda National Park (GPNP). The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were employed to quantify habitat suitability, identify degraded habitat, rank environmental drivers and develop restoration scenarios. The results indicated that the theoretical habitat area was 33 671.97 ha, whereas the actual habitat area was 25 624.44 ha, with 10 424.07 ha identified as degraded. In the theoretical habitat model, elevation was the most significant factor (23.2%), followed by vegetation type (22.6%) and distance to water (16.4%). In the actual habitat model, grazing intensity was the predominant factor (46.8%), surpassing infrastructure (11.8%), distance to water (6.8%) and vegetation type (6.0%). Grazing intensity also emerged as the primary factor affecting habitat quality among the controllable variables. Consequently, this study advocates for prohibiting or controlling grazing intensity and restoring habitat vegetation as critical strategies for rehabilitating degraded panda habitats in Shimian. The methodologies provide a framework for broader ecological sustainability and establish a replicable approach for habitat restoration in similar regions, contributing to global conservation efforts.